Chart Analysis – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Credits for October

The Current Market Situation

As of October 4th, crypto markets are still struggling to recover. Since its last sharp drop, BTC fails to retrace to $8500 level while many other currencies see significant losses. As of publishing time, BTC dominance remains around 67%.

BTC/USDT Daily Chart

On the chart, we can see that the price made a break of the lower resistance boundary of the “triangle with a flat bottom” formation in the zone of $9560-9580. At the same time, 157 SMA was broken, which confirmed the dominance of sellers. Now the price is trading around $8100-8250, at the border of the resistance of descending channel. Consolidation of the price indicates the current period of accumulation, interest of buyers and a potential return to the upper boundary of the descending channel to $9100-9200 zone. After the middle of the month, the price may rebound from the support level of the descending channel and return to the area of $??8900-9300, where there is a strong resistance. Also, the other day, the level of 8200 was traded and once again protected. The common mood is to fall, and we know that often the market goes against the majority. A lot of people are in shorts and this is an excellent point for growth (their stops and liquidation of positions, as was the case recently with longsters)

 

credits, cryptocurrency, market, analysis

CS/BTC 4H Chart

Against the background of a general market decline, the CS/BTC trading pair shows a positive trend in terms of growth in volumes and prices. On the chart, we can see that the price once again has rebounded from the support line in the zone of 0.0000105-0.0000110 BTC and is preparing for a retest of the resistance zone around 0.0000127-0.0000130 BTC. Breaking this zone will enable the price to go up to the zone of 0.000015-0.000016 BTC. The overselling of technical indicators, as well as fundamental news performance, can be an additional incentive for investors when deciding to enter a position.

 

ETH/BTC Daily Chart

On this chart, we see that the ETH/BTC pair is in a deep downtrend that has been going on for a year. However, the price has been able to demonstrate positive dynamics, pushing away from support in the zone of ??0.0155-0.0160 BTC, which is a historical low. Currently, the price is being traded to the midline of the descending channel, next to the 157 moving average. The downtrend to BTC indicates the possibility of diversification of investor assets and the potential growth of the ETH/BTC pair. An important resistance level is the zone 0.025-0.026 BTC, a break of which can signal a return to the zone 0.0308-0.0309 and the beginning of a new uptrend.

 

Fear & Greed Index

Currently, the Crypto Market Sentiment displays a “Fear-30” meter that correlates quite correctly with the general market situation and recent price movements. The investors are worried which means it is a signal for buying at an undervalue.

 

Martin Goldmann

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin price prediction – BTC/USD barely holding at the edge of a cliff – Confluence Detector

Bitcoin futures contracts are likely to be banned from Britain’s retail market.

Bitcoin stares into the abyss after testing the $8,000 weak support area.

Bitcoin continues to lead the market in consolidation. However, a keen observation of the Bitcoin trend, one can clearly tell that the price has a high affinity to declines in the near-term. Its potential to hold above the critical $8,000 is almost non-existent. This follows a correction from an opening price of $8,231 and a bearish leg to $8,063.

In other news, Bitcoin futures contracts are likely to be kicked off the retail market in Britain if the consideration being made by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) sees the light of the day. Although matter came to light during a consultation on October 3, a ruling on it will have to wait until 2020.

Consequently, as mentioned above Bitcoin is hanging on a thread above $8,000. The confluence detector places the first support at $8,044 (weak support). Glancing lower, the only next viable support area is $7,792 as highlighted using the previous week low, pivot point one daily support three.

On the upside, huge resistance awaits the bulls at $8,297. The indicators converging in this zone are the simple moving average five one-day, SMA 10 one-day, Bollinger Band four-hour middle, Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day.

On the brighter side, if the price manages to clear the resistance at $8,297 the remaining journey to $9,000 will be less bumpy except for a few hurdles at $8,549 and $8,969.

 

John Isige

FXStreet

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Experts See Bitcoin Rallying to $20,000 Before End of the Year – Here are the Reasons

Bitcoin is down by over 40% from the 2019 high of $13,880. Any other asset plunging by 20% or more would have been in a bear market. But not the king of cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has retraced by more than 40% in previous bull runs and many market participants are comfortable holding the cryptocurrency.

To prove our point, we asked experts what are their year-end target for the top cryptocurrency. We were surprised to see that many of them are bullish on bitcoin and believe that it will regain the all-time high of $20,000 before this year expires.

$10,000 Appears to Be the Conservative Target

Experienced traders are not fond of doling out extreme target prices. They believe that it encourages some retail traders to think of how much money they can make instead of protecting their capital. This strategy often leads to tremendous losses.

Hence, some traders gave us conservative price targets. For instance, Elliotician Benjamin Blunts sees bitcoin recovering $10,000. He said,

I think we can be back at $10,000 by year end provided we get a strong bounce from the $7,500 support zone on [the] daily.

Crypto trader Beastlorion supports the call of Benjamin Blunts. The analyst told CCN,

Well, between $10,000 – $12,000.

Michael Terpin, founder and chief executive of Transform Group, also chimed in. He said,

The price of bitcoin historically advances sharply two quarters before the halving and has also averaged triple-digit gains in the fourth quarter if you remove the corrective years following all-time highs. This Q4 should most closely resemble Q4 2015, which saw an 85 pct gain in the quarter, which would put the price of BTC at $15,400.

In addition, the widely-followed Trader Mayne is sticking to his call. When asked about his year-end target, the trader said,

$16,000.

It seems that technical analysts have a wide range in terms of their target price for bitcoin this year. On the contrary, those who look at the fundamentals seem confident that bitcoin will reach $20,000.

$20,000 Attainable Due to Bitcoin’s Growing Fundamentals

While poring over charts might give analysts a target between $10,000 and $16,000, those who focus on bitcoin’s strengthening fundamentals are looking at $20,000 or higher.

For instance, Sean Barger, managing director of CPUcoin, said,

I believe BTC will pierce $20,000 by the end of the year. There’s simply too much being built on BTC as the foundation for the universal world currency, and there are signs of deep adoption from enterprise and consumers alike.

 

Tomàs Sallés a financial writer at FXStreet supports Mr. Barger’s call. He said,

If [bitcoin] resists above $7,750 we could see [it] closing in the $17,000 zone or above historical highs and $20,000 price level.

Nick Hellman, the president of LearnCrypto, was ready to up the ante but he extended the timeline. He told CCN,

Let’s just say new highs before May of 2020, probably somewhere from $24,000 – $32,000.

For those who are not aware, May 2020 is when the next bitcoin halving takes place. This is an ultra bullish event that even a German bank sees the cryptocurrency trading at $90,000 after the halving.

Thus, if a financial institution sees bitcoin valued at $90,000 after the May halving, it may not be so far-fetched to think that the cryptocurrency could be priced at $20,000 before the turn of the calendar.

Disclaimer: The above should not be considered trading advice from CCN. The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

 

By

Kiril Nikolaev @kirilnikk123

 

October 2, 2019

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Precipitous 20% Bitcoin Price Plunge to $8,000 Caused by Traders Data

 

Bitcoin hasn’t had the past ten days. Since the Sunday before last, the price of the cryptocurrency has shed some 15%, leaving many traders stumped as to what in the world took place to send digital assets plummeting.

 

Cynics of the Bitcoin market have suggested that the rally to $14,000 and the subsequent dump was “one final pump and dump” enacted by whales. Gold proponent Peter Schiff, for instance, claimed that this move is a precursor to a plunge to $4,000, potentially lower.

 

But, data has shown that it isn’t these whales causing Bitcoin’s recent volatility, it’s the short-term traders presumably looking to make a quick buck.

 

Bitcoin Drop Led by Traders

Coinmetrics recently published to Twitter a chart that tracked the “change in the number of Bitcoin by price at time of last on-chain movement” for September 20th to 29th.

As seen below, the industry analytics startup found that during the recent price decline, “there was activity from Bitcoin that last moved when prices were between $13,000 and $20,000”, implying that capitulation for those in the red “is complete”.

There were other optimistic signs. Two, in fact.

Firstly, quite heavy selling from Bitcoin last moved in the $10,000 to $12,000 range hints that the sell-off was a byproduct of “short-term traders that have weak long-term conviction”.

And secondly, as there was little profit-taking from long-term holders that accumulated under $8,000, meaning that this subset’s “bull market psychology remains unchanged.”

Cryptocurrency analytics firm Glassnode has corroborated this analysis. They found that the average age of moved coins over recent days “is between 20-30 days”, while the CoinDays Destroyed metric “hasn’t deviated significantly”.

This data can be interpreted as a sign that the “[price drop] was likely due to short-term holders,” which is partially proven by the massive volumes seen on BitMEX and other high time preference exchanges during this move lower.

 

Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below Stock-to-Flow Model, Will The Halving Be Front Run By Bulls?

The Accumulation Game

Short-term traders may have run for the hills, but HODLers, on the other hand, have been sticking to their guns.

According to an analysis completed by Twitter account “BitcoinEconomics.io”, accumulation by addresses it deems “companies”, “retail holders”, and “big holders” has been on a steady uptrend, even throughout the recent bout of volatility. They claim that this is a sign that the “outlook for Bitcoin looks great”.

What all these investors seem to be waiting for is Bitcoin’s next block reward reduction — known as a “halving” or “halvening”. You see, in May 2020, the issuance (inflation) of BTC will be cut in half as a result of baked-in facets of the Bitcoin protocol. Analysts say that this halving event, which equates to a negative supply shock, will boost BTC to fresh heights.

Due to this potential for upside, or at least the hype surrounding this narrative, investors are believed to be stacking satoshis (as they fondly call the game of Bitcoin accumulation) in anticipation of price upside.

Whether or not that upside comes to fruition, however, remains to be seen. But many sure seem to be betting on it.

 

Nick Chong

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin Pullback Nothing to Worry About, Bull Market Will Follow

Every time Bitcoin dumps a double digit percentage panic floods the crypto community and the doom merchants start rejoicing. This has happened so many times before and every dump has eventually turned into a sustained rally. Nothing is new this time as previous corrections have shown.

Bitcoin Market in 2013 Compared to Now

Observing previous market movements may help us predict the current one. Naturally things are very different in 2019 than they were in 2013 but the chart patterns show similarities. Back then Bitcoin was largely a plaything for geeks with mining rigs made out of gaming PCs in their garages. Today it supports a multi-billion dollar industry but the volatility remains.

One thing that is guaranteed with Bitcoin is price corrections. When it surges things happen fast but when it corrects the price drops even quicker. At the moment BTC has corrected 42 percent from its high this year. A correction of this magnitude had been predicted by many a couple of months ago and it was largely expected by analysts that prices would drop to $8k.

Trader and analyst Josh Rager has been looking at previous corrections and noted that this one is relatively minor in comparison.

“2013: Bitcoin bull market pulled back 75% over 89 days before a 1600% run-up to new highs later in the year.

2019: Bitcoin has currently retraced 42% over 91 days,”

Compared to a pullback of 75% this current correction is ‘no big deal’ he added. Rager also expects price to fall further and eyed the mid-$6,000 region in a more recent tweet.

“IMO, the lowest $BTC will hit: between $6300 to $6600 where there is major interest. Price currently bounced off monthly support & if this area breaks could head to $6600 – based on higher time frames,”

A drop to $6,500 will mean a correction of around 53 percent which is still less than that of 2013. In 2018 BTC corrected a whopping 84 percent from its all-time high to the low just below $3,200 in December.

So far this year Bitcoin is still up 110 percent and the predicted plunge deeper will still keep it 70 percent higher than January’s prices. Corrections provide buying opportunities and traders and investors around the world know this.

It is very difficult to catch the bottoms to buy and the tops to sell so getting somewhere close should be good enough. It seems that traders are aware of this and are holding off buying in at $8k where many expected as further losses now seem very likely.

Those looking at the big picture would have simply been accumulating this year and will continue to do so during this correction. Granted, there has been the biggest weekly dump since early 2018 and many have gone into manic mode – the fear and greed index is a good indicator of this – but this has all happened before, and will all happen again.

 

Martin Young

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Mark Yusko – Everyone Should Be Purchasing Bitcoin

 

When it comes to bitcoin, most analysts seem split right down the middle, with some like Warren Buffett telling us to avoid it all costs, and hedge fund manager Mark Yusko telling us to buy it at all costs.

Yusko: BTC Is an Important Asset

In a recent interview with CNBC, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital told his listeners to “buy it” when it came to bitcoin and said that we should not be thinking about the recent price drops. He said that while all assets will fluctuate, bitcoin is still in its development stage, and the user base, while it’s growing steadily, is still relatively small.

This, he says, is a major advantage for investors, particularly for new ones, in that they’ll still be one of the early figures to get involved in cryptocurrency, thus heightening their chances to build wealth in the future. He commented that the price of bitcoin “doesn’t matter,” and says that the focus should not be on what’s happening today.

Last summer, when the currency was trading at roughly $12,000, Yusko said he was confident the asset could potentially reach $30,000 before the next major pullback. He’s certain that pullbacks tend to occur regularly; you just need to know how to read them. Granted you don’t sell your stash before it occurs, the best idea could be to sit and wait, as every asset must go up before coming down again.

His advice seems to go against several bitcoin notables including Tom Lee of Fundstrat fame, who just yesterday was quoted as saying that right now is a very bad time to be trading or buying bitcoin. Lee appears more affected by the price than Yusko does and commented that until the S&P goes up, bitcoin has zero chance of breaking out.

This is coming from the man who despite 2018’s numerous bitcoin crashes, predicted repeatedly that the currency would end the year in the $15,000 or $20,000 range. Lee later stated that bitcoin could potentially end 2019 at $40,000 per unit.
 

Crypto Making a Comeback?

At press time, the currency has recovered somewhat from the recent bloodbath that knocked several digital assets down by anywhere between six and 23 percent. Bitcoin fell by roughly 11 percent within a few short minutes, dropping from the mid-$9,000 range to about $8,100. It later fell below $8,000 and was trading at approximately $7,868 during today’s early morning hours. It has since hopped back up to about $8,030.

Ethereum, on the other hand, has risen by about ten dollars since its recent fall, currently trading at $167 per token. It’s a welcome change from the dismal $157 it was trading at roughly 48 hours ago, and while there’s still plenty of room for improvement, it’s nice to see all the major coins working hard to return to their previous marks.

 

NICK MARINOFF · SEPTEMBER 27, 2019 · 3:00 PM

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin – $0 or $100,000?

Bitcoin has long toiled in obscurity. Despite the cryptocurrency now being valued at some $180 billion — the size of a large Silicon Valley firm — it is still relatively small in the grand schemes of things. Yes, it is one of the largest base monies in the world, but is still pitiful when put up against the size of, say, the equities or housing markets.

Some cynics have postulated that this is the biggest that the cryptocurrency will ever grow. Ever.

For instance, Larry Summers, the former Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank, said that gold, at $7 trillion, is around 1% of global wealth. And, cryptocurrency, he added, is approximately 5% of that. These proportions, he claims, are “just about right”.

 

In a recent Youtube video, the prominent commodities trader said that Bitcoin has a 50% chance of succeeding and a 50% chance of failing — no in-betweens. He defines success as a rally to $50,000 to $100,000 — meaning that Bitcoin would be valued at around $1 trillion to $2 trillion; and failure as a move for BTC to become “basically worthless”, which he claims is a sub-$1,000 price point.

 

While he believes that Bitcoin is more than a 50/50 binary than anything, Brandt has been leaning long over recent months, touting lofty predictions that were seemingly music to the ears of HODLers. As reported by Ethereum World News previously, the leading trader said that [there is a] “Possibility that $BTC has entered fourth parabolic phase,” Brandt noted while pointing to the chart seen below.

 

This uptrend, he has claimed will bring BTC to $50,000 and beyond.

Interestingly, $50,000 isn’t as crazy as it may sound from an outsider’s perspective.

A price model from Twitter analyst PlanB, which has been accurate to a 95% R2, has shown that after the May 2020 halving, BTC’s fair market capitalization will swell to $1 trillion. This market capitalization translates to $50,000 per coin as aforementioned.

That’s not all. ByteTree’s Charlie Morris wrote in a note earlier this year that Bitcoin is currently trending above a trendline that has an internal rate of return of 115% per annum. Should this trend continue, the analyst remarked that Bitcoin could “touch a trillion dollars by 2025”.

 

By Nick Chong September 22, 2019

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Something Very Strange Is Going On With Bitcoin And BTC Google Searches

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices are well known to be closely tied to media and general public interest–-though that could be changing.

The bitcoin price has been climbing so far this year, rising some 200% since January, though has recently plateaued at around $10,000 per bitcoin after peaking at more than $12,000 in June.

Now, it appears Google searches for bitcoin and BTC, the name used by traders for the bitcoin digital token, could be being manipulated–-possibly in order to move the bitcoin price.

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Google searches for "BTC" (red) have suddenly eclipsed "bitcoin" (blue) searches in the U.S. and around the world. GOOGLE TRENDS

This week there has been a massive leap in Google searches for "BTC," which usually is lower than searches for "bitcoin"–with search volume for "BTC" around the world now far higher than it was even at the top of bitcoin's epic 2017 bull run.

The trend may have started in Romania, Swedish cryptocurrency website Trijo News first reported.

"It is reasonable to assume that someone is behind these radical changes," wrote Kryptografen's Bendik Norheim Schei.

"That the same pattern can be seen all over the world may indicate that VPN services have been used to distribute the search across the world, thus achieving a global trend. Google Trends points out that changes have been relatively large in Romania. Is this the source, or is it just because there have been fewer searches for BTC previously? Whatever the answer is–something very strange has happened to the interest in the keyword 'BTC' this past week."

 

The bitcoin price has in the past tracked searches for "bitcoin" and "BTC" quite closely, with a sudden rise in searches for "BTC" without a similar rise in the price highly unusual.

Meanwhile, Totte Löfström of Trijo News, which first reported the Google search discrepancy, found that, "if you choose to display the Google Trends result for the topic 'bitcoin', all searches containing that keyword are included: 'buy bitcoin,' 'bitcoin price,' 'where can I buy bitcoin,' and so on, the number of Google searches containing the word 'bitcoin' has increased very significantly lately."
Searches for "BTC" (red) have never been higher, with Romania a possible the source of the surge. GOOGLE TRENDS

Other bitcoin and cryptocurrency analysts were quick to join Schei in pointing to potential market manipulation.

"Somebody's trying to game the trading algorithms," said Glen Goodman, trading veteran and author of bitcoin investment book, The Crypto Trader, who explained how this could be used to move bitcoin prices on the market.

"There are algorithms programmed to look at Google Trends data and try to find correlations between numbers of searches for the word 'BTC' and the movements in the bitcoin price."

"If they detect patterns, it may be profitable to trade off that data. This hacker may be buying some BTC, then sending a ton of 'BTC' search queries to Google, the algos see search numbers have risen and are triggered to buy a lot of BTC which pushes the price up, and the hacker then sells their BTC at a profit. Easy money!"

Meanwhile, it seems whoever is trying to manipulate the search results for "BTC" is doing it in an organised way.

The bitcoin price usually moves higher if Google searches for "bitcoin" and "BTC" rise, though this hasn't happened to a significant degree. COINDESK

"These searches appear to be timed to coincide with the quietest time in each country–around 4am or 5am, when search traffic is subdued, so the spam search queries will have maximum impact on the graph," Goodman added.

Billy Bambrough

Billy Bambrough

I am a journalist with significant experience covering technology, finance, economics, and business around the world. As the founding editor of Verdict.co.uk I reported …

 

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden