Institutional Longs on Bitcoin Price Grow as Bear Momentum Wanes

Despite the harrowing price drop seen in late September, institutions are expecting for the Bitcoin (BTC) price to soon head higher — at least for institutions involved in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures market.

Industry analytics provider Skew recently observed that long positions held by institutional accounts — pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds & portfolio/investment managers with institutional clients — have begun to rise again in October after nearly falling to zero BTC. Right now, this subset’s long holdings sit at just over 1,100 BTC.

Bitcoin Bull Case Gains Traction

The trend Skew observed comes as Bitcoin’s bull case has begun to grow once again. For instance, a partner at Bitazu Capital recently found that BTC’s price is nearing a bottom. He noted that a number of technical indicators suggest that the bear trend is about to reverse.

The fundamental side of the Bitcoin story is also gaining traction. On Friday, Abigail Johnson, chief executive of Fidelity Investments, told Financial Times that the firm’s cryptocurrency branch will finally be rolling out its Bitcoin and cryptocurrency custodial and trade execution services to all qualified accounts — institutional players.

Johnson also said that she believes that Bitcoin is not a mere trend and is instead here to stay:

“It’s not going away. As long as the value is there, people will look to preserve that value.”

Not In The Clear Just Yet

While the bull case for Bitcoin is growing, this market is not in the clear just yet.

Per previous reports from this very outlet, a “death cross,” which is when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average for an asset, is forming on the Bitcoin chart. Should this technical pattern come to fruition on Bitcoin’s chart, it will show that bears have control of this market. As a trader pointed out, the last BTC death cross, which was observed in 2018, marked the commencement of a long-term price correction.

Also, Peter Schiff, a prominent libertarian investor, has suggested that BTC’s price chart “looks horrible.”

Schiff, in fact, remarked that the “(bear) flag that followed the recent breakdown projects a move to $6,000,” which would imply a 25% drop from current levels if this move pans out. He even added that not only has Bitcoin fallen below a flag, “but we are [also] close to completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top … that projects a collapse below $2,000.”

 

Nick Chong

5 hours ago

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Weekly Forecast –  Vulnerable Below $8K-$8.2K

There was a steady decline in bitcoin price below the $8,200 support against the US Dollar.

The price is currently trading below $8,000 and it remains at a risk of more losses.

There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $8,100 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

The price must climb above $8,100 and $8,200 for bullish continuation in the near term.

Bitcoin price is showing bearish signs below $8,000 against the US Dollar. BTC could extend its decline below the $7,800 support area in the near term.
 

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)

In the past few days, BTC followed a bearish path below the $8,400 and $8,250 levels against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair even settled below the $8,200 support and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). Finally, there was a break below the $8,000 support and a new monthly low was formed near $7,822. The price is currently consolidating losses and is trading below the $8,000 support.

An immediate resistance is near the $8,000 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,475 swing high to $7,822 low. On the upside, there are many hurdles near the $8,100 and $8,200 levels. Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $8,100 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Besides, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,475 swing high to $7,822 low is also near the $8,150 level. Finally, 100 simple moving average (4-hours) is positioned near the $8,200 level. Therefore, bitcoin price must surpass the $8,100 and $8,200 resistance levels to start a decent recovery. Additionally, a close above the $8,200 barrier and the 100 SMA is needed for more upsides.

On the downside, the key support is near the $7,800 level. If there is a downside break below the $7,800 support, the price could continue to decline in the near term. The next major support is near the $7,500 level, below which there is a risk of more losses towards $7,200.

Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is clearly trading in a bearish zone below the $8,000 pivot level and the $8,200 resistance. Therefore, a convincing break above $8,000 and a follow through above $8,200 is required for a strong recovery. If not, the price is likely to test the $7,500 support area.
 

Technical indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly moving back into the bearish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently recovering and it could break the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $7,800

Major Resistance Level – $8,200

 

Aayush Jindal

 

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Ripple CEO – Bitcoin or XRP will not replace any currencies for the time being

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, does not believe that Bitcoin, XRP or other cryptocurrencies will replace local currencies such as the dollar, the euro or the Chinese yuan. The environmental conditions were in his view not yet ready to be suitable for the "masses".

Garlinghouse describes in an interview to "The Economic Club of New York" that Bitcoin or XRP will not serve in the next period as a replacement for classic Fiat currencies. He sees the use cases for the practice mainly in cross-border payments justified, as crypto currencies in this area are clearly superior to traditional Fiat currencies.

He also states that in the near future, people will not pay for goods in the supermarket or services with digital assets (freely translated):

XRP, in my opinion, and really every crypto – I do not think the use case is a consumer use case today. I imagine a certain percentage of the people in this room stopped by Starbucks before they came this morning. And you had no problems paying.

You used your Visa card. Maybe you had dollars in your pocket, I do not know. But it worked. People will not adopt a new thing unless it helps you in some way.

Cryptocurrencies could be used in some third world countries that lack access to finance. Above all else, cryptocurrencies could solve the problem of the different valency of fiat currencies (freely translated):

There are markets that have already lost control of their currency where the transaction cost for a Visa transaction is not 150 basis points or 200 basis points. There are 800 basis points.

Garlinghouse sees in it, among other things, the current developments of Facebook's own project Libra justified. Facebook has portrayed Libra as a kind of fiat currency in its white paper, which of course is a thorn in the side of many governments worldwide. Nevertheless, the crypto payment platforms are growing worldwide, which ensure a steadily increasing adaptation of Bitcoin and Co. There are many apps, such as Flexa or Wirecard, that enable you to pay for goods or services in participating shops within a few clicks within the app.

Ripple is currently pushing ahead with the further adoption and expansion of XRP through partnerships with wallet provider BRD and startup Vega. This is intended to reach new users and develop markets. Although the Vega platform is currently still under construction, it offers access to the wholesale market, which is worth several trillion worldwide. Ripple seeks to be present in key markets early through smart investment decisions and has a strong network of affiliates. It remains to be seen whether XRP can compete with other rivals such as Stellar Lumens .

By

Marcel Knobloch

18th October 2019

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Dominated by Sellers

In the last 24 hours, cryptocurrencies dropped 2.5% in market capitalization, moving this value to $216.05 billion with a 24H traded volume of $26.2 billion (+1.15%). ALGO (-6.39), Bitcoin SV (-6.3), Tron(-6.03)Litecoin (-5.03%) were the most sold cryptos. The exceptions were Monero (6.27%), Dodge Coin (5.73), and XEM (8%). The best performers among tokens were SNX (16.1%), and MOF (15.66%).

The Market capitalization chart shows that the heaviest selling happened at 06 p.m. on Monday and since then it has recovered slightly,

Market cap

Hot News

Market Capitalization

Telegram informed investors the launch of TON, its own cryptocurrency project, will be delayed, and thus, investors could get their funds back according to the original deal. Telegram wants to move the deadline from October 30 to April 30, 2020.

US Congressman Warren Davidson, a member of the US House of representatives from Ohio, said in an interview by Noded bitcoin Podcast that Facebook should adopt Bitcoin and drop their Libra project. He explained that Cash App was able to go unnoticed by merely integrating bitcoin into their platform instead of creating a brand new coin. He also suggests that Libra could be treated as security since it can be manipulated by a central authority.

Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro stated its government is delivering a total of USD 543,700 in the oil-backed Petro cryptocurrency to each of the 23 states on a bimonthly basis. He also said that additional resources would be handed to local governments next month. This might the first time a government is officially founding its institutions using a state-run cryptocurrency.

 

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continued descending during the last 24 hours, and its price is now slightly below $8,000. The main drop happened before 6.pm. Then, the price made a timid recovery, although the current price action suggests more drops (lower highs and lower lows). The price continues moving below the -1SD Bollinger line and the MACD is in its bearish phase.

The levels to watch are:

Supports 4H Pivot Resistances

S3: $7,500 8,200 R3: $9,320

S2: $7,700 R2: $8,700

S1: $7,900 R1: $8,530

Ethereum

Ethereum followed a quite similar path to the Bitcoin. After breaking the triangular formation to the downside, the price kept moving down to touch $172 and then slightly bounce, as the price went to the oversold region. MACD continues being bearish, and the price moves below the -1SD Bollinger line.

Supports 4H pivot: Resistances

S3 $160 180 R3 202

S2 $167 R2 196

S1 $168 R1 186

Ripple

Ripple reached the corrective target we devised yesterday and is sitting on the ascending trendline and its 50-period moving average. MACD is still in it bearish phase, and although XRP did a modest correction compared to other cryptos, there is still a chance for more drops, as the price is below the -1SD Bollinger level and, as mentioned MACD still show selling pressure.

Supports Pivot: Resistances

S3 $0.24 $0.27 R3 $0.33

S2 $0.25 R2 $0.30

S1 $0.26 R1 $0.285

 

 

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Weekly Forecast – $8,300 Holds Key For Fresh Increase

• After a sharp increase, bitcoin price corrected lower sharply below $8,500 against the US Dollar.

• The price is currently consolidating above the key $8,300 support area.

• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $8,420 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

• The price must stay above the $8,300 and $8,250 support levels to start a fresh increase in the near term.

Bitcoin price is struggling to hold gains above $8,300 against the US Dollar. BTC needs to surpass the $8,500 and $8,550 resistance levels to continue higher.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)

This past week, BTC gained strong bullish momentum above the $8,300 and $8,350 resistances against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair climbed more than 5% and broke the $8,500 and $8,700 resistance levels. Moreover, there was a close above $8,500 and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). A new monthly high was formed near the $8,934 level and later the price started a sharp downward move.

The price broke the $8,800 and $8,500 support levels. Additionally, there was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $7,763 low to $8,934 high. More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $8,420 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even traded below the $8,350 support area.

At the moment, the price is consolidating losses above the $8,300 support area. It seems like there is a strong support forming near the $8,300 level and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $7,763 low to $8,934 high is also near the $8,300. If there is a downside break below the $8,300 support area, bitcoin price could move back into a bearish zone.

The next key support area is near the $8,250 level, below which it could move towards the $8,000 level. On the upside, there is a major hurdle forming near the $8,500 and $8,550 levels. A convincing close above the $8,550 resistance area could set the tone for more upsides in the coming sessions.

Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is currently consolidating above the key $8,300 support area. As long as there is no daily close below $8,300, there are high chances of a fresh increase above the $8,500 resistance area in the near term.

 

Technical indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is likely to move back into the bullish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently below the 50 level, with a positive angle.

Major Support Level – $8,300

Major Resistance Level – $8,500

 

Aayush Jindal

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

HMRC demands info on traders from crypto exchanges in the UK

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), the UK’s tax authority, sent out requests to several top cryptocurrency exchanges last month, for information regarding their customers.

Specifically, the agency sent a letter to three major digital currency exchange providers registered in the country – Coinbase, CEX.io, and eToro – reportedly asking them to hand over lists of the names and transaction details of their UK customers.

HMRC is said to be examining this information to identify potential tax evasion cases. The agency has also released more guidance on how cryptocurrencies are taxed so this move is likely a reinforcement of its guidelines.

It appears that Bitcoin investors should be bracing themselves for a crypto-focused tax crackdown this year, as similar actions have been taken by governments across the globe. The IRS recently sent out letters to over 10000 crypto traders that may have avoided paying taxes.

Eyes set on crypto tax evaders

HMRC’s request for information seeks the cooperation of crypto brokerage firms, with the agency hoping to use the details they receive to get those who may have evaded paying taxes on their crypto holdings.

Tax obligations that individuals will have to report involve the buying and selling of cryptocurrencies. Employees will also be expected to pay tax on income received in bitcoin or in the form of any other digital currencies.

An advisory HMRC issued last year provided policy guidelines that sought to have crypto holders pay either Income Tax or Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Notably, any specific tax will depend on the particular type of crypto transactions individuals undertake.

The examination of transaction details will likely go back to around 2016, meaning that early bitcoin adopters and investors may be spared.

If this turns out to be the case, then the majority of those who will be approached will also be those who entered the space at a time when cryptocurrencies peaked – when the price of Bitcoin (BTC) hit nearly $20k.

Does HMRC actually have a right to this information?

The UK’s tax agency is not the country’s financial regulator, and thus some may say it lacks the legal jurisdiction over such matters relating to the financial details of an investor. This mandate falls under the scope of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

However, it should be noted that the revenue authority’s decision to go after the names and transaction details of bitcoin investors isn’t illegal, given that the FCA and HMRC do work together.

The Revenue & Customs agency has gone on to clarify that its request for information from crypto exchanges falls within its operational reach. According to the agency, cryptocurrency exchanges can “retain” client transaction details completed on the platforms.

It also added that:

“These (completed) transactions may result in potential tax charges and HMRC has the power to issue notices requiring exchanges to provide this information.”

HMRC’s letter to the three exchanges is similar to a move by the IRS in 2017 where they requested info from Coinbase.

What next?

It goes without saying that investors should go over their previously filed tax reports to ensure they are compliant. The HMRC can and will go after historical filings so if you failed to declare your crypto holdings or reported them incorrectly – it is a good idea to get them sorted out as soon as possible. You are unlikely to be penalised if you come clean with an amended tax return. You may also want to consult a crypto tax accountant who will be able to guide you on the next steps (and save your crypto gains!).

 

by robinsingh September 18, 2019 in Bitcoin News

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin [BTC] Bears Make the Run as Price Breaks $8600, Could it be a Bull Trap?

Bitcoin [BTC] made a strong move on Wednesday as it gained more than $500, reaching a daily high of $8710. The momentarily broke above the 200-Day moving average at $8630. However, it failed to break above the resistance from the moving average.

BTC/USD 1-Day Chart on Bitstamp (TradingView)

The closing for yesterday and today’s opening is skirting along with the moving average. Although the daily volume was higher than in the last week, it was not significant enough for a big move.

Furthermore, while the bullish surge is strong, the price still has to break above the support turned resistance area around $9000. CryptoFibonacci, a crypto-trader tweeted,

After clearing one Fib cluster resistance today, there is another one at 8900-9000 area. Not to mention some old support that is now resistance as well.

A fall back to $8000 levels from here, could lead to lower-lows, hence, a bull-trap. Derivatives trader and crypto-analyst, Tone Vays suggested in his Trading Bitcoin update, that a break above the bottom of the descending triangle at $9450 is also essential for bullish confirmations.

According to another crypto-trader – Josh Rager, if the price fails to break above the resistance levels, the sellers might step in again. Nevertheless, if it manages to break above the resistance, a bullish candle of proportional magnitudes to the one on 24th September can be witnessed.
 

Are Fundamentals Strong Enough?

Fundamentally, the rise can be attributed to the Feds’ announcement of another round of quantitative easing. The Feds announced yesterday that it would buy up short-term treasuries to increase liquidity in the money markets.

While Fed Chairman Jereme Powell denied the term ‘QE,’ the general sentiments were one of an economic crisis. Gold also surged back above $1500 on 8th October. Moreover, the QE steps were somewhat expected, given the current financial condition.

Peter Schiff, investment fund manager, and gold buff tweeted talking about the QE during the 2008 apocalyptic economic crisis,

How can the Fed claim QE was a success if they couldn’t reverse it? The whole rally in the dollar, the whole decline in gold, was all predicated on people believing the Fed. Well, the Fed are a bunch of liars… He added, ‘The Dollar is Going to Get Killed’

Hence, it continues to make a strong case for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, as well.

Furthermore, the launch of UNICEF’s crypto fund also acted as a positive catalyst. Nevertheless, the crypto fund has been limited to the blockchain innovation projects only. Hence, while it acts as positive adoption news, the direct effects of it can still take longer.

 

Nivesh Rustgi Bitcoin News 1 min ago

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin Price Finally Hits $8,300, Highest Single-Day Jump In Five Weeks

There are signs of slight bullishness for Bitcoin as it reemerged above the $8,000 level.

After visiting a low of $7763.54 on Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) capped off its biggest daily gain of 4.47 percent in five weeks. The popular cryptocurrency even traded above $8,200 and went up to as high as $8344.12 on Tuesday.

Traders target the $8,500 level as the next key resistance level.

Still far away from most targets

At the current price, BTC looks very far away from what experts and well-known Bitcoin believers project prices to be.

For instance, German bank Bayerische Landesbank published a September 2019 report about Bitcoin with a price projection of $90,000 by May 2020. The model that they used for valuing BTC is the stock-to-flow approach, which is usually a metric for analyzing precious metals and commodities.

Trader and author Peter Brandt predicted on Sept. 29 that the cryptocurrency would bottom at $5,500 that will lead a bull move to $50,000. John Mcafee, the founder of McAfee Associates, agreed with Brandt but had a more vertiginous forecast — a $1 million Bitcoin.

Zhao Dong, a shareholder of Bitfinex and founder of crypto lending platform RenrenBit, said the crypto market will go up in the next three months. He shared his thoughts on Weibo.

"The next three months could be the last opportunity for bottom fishers, and after that, the crypto market will enter Spring and then Summer, estimated to rally together with China's stock market in 2021."

But with the way Bitcoin is moving at its current pace, it would take massive participation and heightened speculative interest for the cryptocurrency to be on track for the majority of its 2020 projections.

Technical Picture

The 4.47% percent move on Monday printed a bullish candlestick on the daily timeframe that, together with Sunday's standard, almost resembled a textbook bullish engulfing pattern, and it's in an area where a previous downtrend preceded it.

The MACD levels show the MACD line crossed above the signal line, which indicates bullish momentum might be ahead and BTC still trades below the 200-day moving average.

Bitcoin price is currently $8,145.57, according to Coindesk.

This chart shows changes in the value of Bitcoin during one year (2018-2019). Photo: IBT / Stati

 

 

By Ron Mendoza

10/09/19 AT 12:18 AM

 

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Crypto Market Prints Bullish Divergence – Case for Bounce Growing

Since plunging all the way to $7,700 last week, Bitcoin has found itself in a lull. The price of the crypto asset, as seen below, has been extremely mild over the past few days.

The one-day Bitcoin volatility index on BitMEX, in fact, is starting to “get closer to [the move which precedes] big candle BTC moves,” analyst Chonis observed recently.

With this latest bout of consolidation, many have been asking in which direction the cryptocurrency market will head next.

According to some, the case for a bounce to the upside is growing. And it might not just be Bitcoin that will bounce.

Case for Crypto Price Bounce Building

If you have perused Crypto Twitter at all over the past few days, you probably have noticed the incessant stream of bearish tweets being published. This writer, personally, has seen at least a half-dozen tweets suggesting that some expect for Bitcoin to enter yet another bear market.

Related Reading: More Downside in Bitcoin Before Conservative Buying Opportunity, Say Analysts

But, a key technical signal is suggesting some impending market strength. Analyst CryptoThies recently drew attention to this signal: a bullish divergence on the crypto market capitalization’s three-day chart.

As he depicted in the tweet that can be seen below, the three-day Stochastic has started to trend higher, seeing higher lows, as the market cap has entered a brief downtrend, seeing lower lows — a bullish divergence that demonstrates that bears are losing control to bulls. Bullish divergences can often mark the end of a downtrend.

Not All Sunshine and Rainbows

Although there is a fair amount of evidence to suggest that a bounce in the cryptocurrency markets will take place, there is one indicator seemingly poised to print a bearish signal: crossovers in the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, Brave New Coin’s Josh Olszewicz recently observed that the two moving averages, which can be interpreted in tandem to discover macro market trends, have converged since Bitcoin’s upward momentum stopped earlier this year.

If the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day, the crypto market’s total capitalization will print what is known as a “death cross”, a sign that last was seen in April of 2018 — just shy of the market’s top in the last cryptocurrency cycle.

Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: SEC Declares Bitcoin a Non-Security, Ethereum DeFi Gains Traction, PayPal Leaves Libra

What the moving averages are saying is that if a strong bounce is not observed soon, the crypto market may be subject to another few months, maybe even a year or more, of decisively bearish price action.
 

Nick Chong

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden