Bitcoin and a new Quarter â More of the Same

Bitcoin and a new Quarter – More of the Same?

Following a solid couple of days to limit the losses for the 2nd quarter, it’s back in the red for Bitcoin at the start of the 3rd, with uncertainty continuing to pin back any meaningful rally.

Bitcoin gained 2.95% on Saturday, following Friday’s 6.12% rally, to end the day at $6,391.6, taking Bitcoin to a 3.96% gain for the current week.

Friday’s late in the day rally spilled over to the early hours of Saturday morning, leading Bitcoin through the day’s first major resistance level at $6,413.4 to a morning high $6,545.5 before easing back to hover at around $6,400 levels.

Following Bitcoin’s start of the day bounce from an intraday low $6,195.2 that left the first major support level at $5,891.4 untested, it was a relatively range bound day, with a second half of the day pullback seeing Bitcoin fall to an afternoon low $6,313.8 before recovering to the morning ranges.

For the Bitcoin bulls, the moves through the day, in response to the start of the day rally, will have given some confidence, with Bitcoin proving to be far more resilient than its peers during the sell-offs, supporting the stronger gains through the week.

There was no particularly positive news to support Saturday’s consolidative gains, with investors eyeing sub-$6,000 levels as a good entry price, in spite of calls of sub-$5,000 levels before any meaningful recovery can begin, all of which is ultimately hinged on the regulatory frameworks that are due to be rolled out in key jurisdictions over the summer.

For the Bitcoin bulls, while the resilience in the 2nd half of the week will have been a positive, the reality is that the extended bearish trend, formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999, remains firmly intact, with Bitcoin needing to break through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level at $6,757 to begin forming a near-term bullish trend.

The last time Bitcoin broke through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level was on 11th June, with the bearish trend having seen Bitcoin strike a number of swing lo prices since.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.69% to $6,347.2 in what’s been another range bound start to the day, relative to the broader market.

A start of the day $6,439.9 high fell short of the first major resistance level at $6,559.67, with an early morning $6,322.9 low holding well above the first major support level at $6,209.37, as Saturday’s consolidation saw Bitcoin steer clear of sub-$6,000 levels for the first time in 4-days.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning’s $6,439.9 high would support a run at $6,500 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $6,559.67, though Bitcoin will need to break back through $6,400 levels that may provide stern resistance should a rally not kick in later in the morning.

Failure to take a run at $6,500 levels to bring the day’s first major resistance level into play could see Bitcoin catch up with the broader market to bring the day’s first major support level at $6,209.37 into play before any recovery, the day’s second major support level at $6,027.13 and sub-$6,000 support levels likely to be left untested through the day.

With Bitcoin ending the month of June down 14.6%, things could have been much worse considering the length of the extended bearish trend, which may provide some degree of comfort to the cryptomarket, though until the regs are rolled out, the uncertainty of what lies ahead will remain a factor that will likely pin Bitcoin back from any meaningful rally near-term.

Bob Mason 32 minutes ago

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin falls below $5 900 to wrap up a gloomy 2018 first half.

Demand for the cryptocurrency has waned amid security and regulatory concerns.

Bitcoin sank further below $6 000 on Friday, heading for a second straight month of declines at around 20%, as demand for the largest cryptocurrency continues to suffer from security and regulatory concerns.

The digital currency slid to about $5 861 early Friday, according to composite Bloomberg pricing, touching the lowest since November. Rival coins including Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin also retreated. All are set for declines of about 20% or more in June.

Confidence in cryptocurrencies is being tested this year with hacks from Japan to South Korea raising security questions. At the same time, central banks and other regulators across the globe have warned about the potential for investor losses and fraud, casting a shadow over the asset class half a year after Bitcoin won a place on Chicago derivative exchanges.

Bitcoin, which is down almost 60% this year, was labeled a “speculative bubble” earlier this week by Nobel economics prize winner Robert Shiller.

Adam Haigh, Bloomberg / 29 June 2018 06:20

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch- Potential Reversal Formation?

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch- Potential Reversal Formation

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch- Potential Reversal Formation?

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

Bitcoin price could be forming a short-term inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Price has been moving sideways for the past few days as bulls try to keep it afloat.
Technical indicators, however, seem to be favoring further declines in bitcoin price.

Bitcoin price seems to be fighting to stay afloat, but technical indicators suggest that further losses are in the cards.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 1-hour chart to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse.

In addition, the 100 SMA is holding as dynamic resistance at the moment. Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to reflect slowing bearish momentum. A rally towards the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point and beyond it could be followed by a bullish crossover.

RSI is heading lower, though, so sellers still have the upper hand. Similarly stochastic is moving down without even hitting overbought levels, which also indicates that bears are eager to return.

Still, a break past the potential inverse head and shoulders neckline around $6,400 could be followed by a rally of around $600 or the same height as the chart formation. If resistance continues to hold, bitcoin price could revisit the lows around $5,800.

CoinMarketCap is reporting an increase in bitcoin interest under their Dominance Index, signaling that investors are revisiting cryptocurrencies as potential higher-yielding holdings. After all, trade troubles are weighing on global stock markets and commodities, so demand for riskier assets may be routed to digital currencies like bitcoin instead.

This phenomenon was observed in a few instances over the past years, such as the resurgence of Greece’s debt troubles that weighed heavily on European markets. This also drove traders to bet on alternative markets outside of traditional ones that are more vulnerable to geopolitical risk.

SARAH JENN | JUNE 28, 2018 | 4:03 AM

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Japan’s Next Economic Boom Will Be Bitcoin And Blockchain Fuelled

Japan's Next Economic Boom Will Be Bitcoin And Blockchain Fuelled

Japan's economy — which for years has struggled to return to its 1980's growth levels — could be about to boom once again, thanks to bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.

At the Japan Blockchain Conference this week in Tokyo (the first if what's expected to become a yearly event) the chief executive of financial services giant SBI Holdings Yoshitaka Kitao said he is betting that blockchain related technologies will fuel the next boom for the Japanese economy after decades of economic malaise.

In the 1970s, Japan had the world's second-largest GDP after the U.S. and this boom continued through to the 1980s. However, by the early 1990s Japan's economy had stalled, plunging the country into what has been called the "lost decade" of growth.

It has previously been suggested Japan's economy could be kick started by a "technological boom."

Improved mobile connectivity through the long-awaited 5G technology, along with the Internet of Things (IoT), rapid increases in computing power and artificial intelligence, could combine to trigger an economic boom, which Japan is well placed to lead the way in.

SBI is investing in companies in Japan and across east Asia through its $460 million so-called AI & Blockchain Fund, established earlier this year.

"We want to take blockchain beyond financial," Yoshitaka Kitao said. "There's a lot of speculative demand around cryptocurrencies, which is why the price is going up so quickly, but people need to think about how these technologies are being used in real life and how they can improve people's businesses."

Earlier this year it was revealed SBI is planning to launch a cryptocurrency exchange this summer and has also invested in a renewable energy wind farm to begin mining Bitcoin Cash — which Yoshitaka believes is more viable than the original bitcoin.

"Bitcoin is too expensive and people are just holding it and hoping it increase in value," said Yoshitaka.

Aaron McDonald, the chief executive of decentralised app marketplace Centrality (which closed a $80 million initial coin offering (ICO) earlier this year), expects Japan and east Asia to be the core driver of global bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and blockchain adoption.

New Zealand-based Centrality's ICO was predominantly bought by investors from Japan, where one third of adults have used a cryptocurrency wallet.

"We're focused on the region because people in Japan are far further ahead than the rest of the world when it comes to blockchain and crytocurrencies," said McDonald.

A spokesperson for blockchain investment advisory company CTIA, one of Centrality's major investors, said: "If blockchain is integrated into the Japanese market it will be a great tool and prevent the market from declining."

This week it was announced Centrality has secured a partnership with China tech giant InfiniVision and Japan-based Jasmy — founded by the former president of the Sony Corporation.

However, there are fears heavy-handed regulation could suffocate the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry in Japan, with the government clamping down on crypto exchanges earlier this year in the wake of a number of high-profile thefts.

Fears of a global regulatory crackdown have contributed to a sharp fall in the bitcoin price in 2018, after a rapid rise last year.

The likes of illegal ICOs, money laundering, tax evasion, thefts, exchange outages, excessive speculation have all become a worry for regulators this year.

While Japan has broadly chose a more accommodating approach to blockchain and cryptocurrencies, last year introducing a law that resulted in 16 licensed trading venues, in early March it also cracked down, penalizing six exchanges and telling another to revise its management structure among other changes.

Billy Bambrough , CONTRIBUTOR

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

A Long-Secret Bitcoin Key Is About to Finally Be Revealed

No, it's not the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, it's a private key the cryptocurrency's creator entrusted to several bitcoin developers that activates the protocol's so-called "alert system," once used to flash a text warning to those running the software in case something happened that could impact the security of their funds.

If you didn't know bitcoin had a warning system like this, that's because it was retired in 2016 due to security concerns and frequent confusion about its use.

"The alert system was a frequent source of misunderstanding about the security model and 'effective governance,'" well-known Bitcoin Core contributor Greg Maxwell wrote in a public email from September 2016.

In short, some in the bitcoin community thought it could be used to change that network rules that unite users, which isn't really the case. For example, a BitcoinJ developer once wanted to use the key to control fees, while a Bloq staffer pressed for Bitcoin Core developers to use the key to change the network's mining difficulty.

Plus, developers were worried that if the wrong person got ahold of the key, they could broadcast false messages or potentially cause panic.

As such, to some, the reveal – being undertaken by Bitcoin Core contributor Bryan Bishop – is a long time coming.

"Folks, it's going to be an interesting show," Bishop tweeted, followed by a string of tweets cryptographically proving he's in possession of the secret key, without fully revealing it quite yet.

The reveal is the final step to destroying the system. After Bitcoin Core developers released new code in 2016 without the alert system, in January 2017, a "final alert message" was broadcast, which – by law of the code – made that message unable to be overridden by any other messages in the future.

Still, the private key needs to be displayed publicly so there's no possibility of reputation attacks against those developers that hold it.

Bishop told CoinDesk he plans to release it soon, though he's not sure about the exact date, adding:

"It's time. I'm thinking about releasing the private key early July at Building on Bitcoin, though it's not finalized yet."

Danger for altcoins

Still, it isn't as easy as it sounds.

Revealing the key is potentially dangerous for any cryptocurrencies that used an older version of bitcoin's code to create their cryptocurrency and have not disabled the alert key mechanism in their own code.

"If the copycats have not disabled the alert system, nor changed the alert key [public key], and if they have not sent what's known as a final alert message, then once the [bitcoin] keys are released, anyone will be able to send alerts on those [other] networks," Bishop told CoinDesk.

It's happened before actually. Litecoin creator Charlie Lee recounted on Twitter just last week how the lesser-known Feathercoin protocol (which copied litecoin's code) received litecoin's alert about upgrading to the latest litecoin client.

And while that isn't a particularly nefarious example, Bishop said, controlling what alert messages are sent on various networks "sounds dangerous."

As such, in Maxwell's 2016 email, he said he had spent and would continue spending some time searching through other cryptocurrency codebases. If they were found to contain the alert key code from bitcoin, he vowed to notify those projects to remove that code.

Maxwell concluded:

"At some point after that, I would then plan to disclose this private key in public, eliminating any further potential of reputation attacks and diminishing the risk of misunderstanding the key as some special trusted source of authority."

Reputation on the line

But, two years later, neither Maxwell – nor any other Bitcoin Core developer – has revealed the key.

"It's something we have wanted to release for a few years. Nobody took any action, though," Bishop said.

But by now, the projects susceptible to this vulnerability have had time to remove the code and upgrade. Although, some of those projects might not have developers anymore, even though users and still trading and using the cryptocurrencies, which could mean there's been no update.

That said, Bishop's giving these projects one last chance by sending messages on Twitter and through other channels.

Adding pressure that could prioritize the reveal, though, is that Bishop and others are worried about attacks on their reputation. For instance, if the private key was compromised and used to sign a message with bad intentions, it could be blamed on one of the Bitcoin Core developers who's known to have the key.

"Nobody knows the full list of people that have access to the private key. A message could be signed by the private key, and the secrecy is a liability because some of the people who have the key are known in public to have the key," Bishop said, pointing to the fact that those with the key that are unknown could blame people who are known to hold the key for nefarious messages.

Bishop recently used the alert key (without revealing it) to sign a simple text message that he then tweeted out, displaying how it could be used to trick users or cause confusion within the community.

Plus, he told CoinDesk, there are other long-standing vulnerabilities within the alert key setup that he plans to disclose when he reveals the key to the public.

As such, Bishop concluded:

"It would be better if the key was released."

Author Alyssa Hertig Jun 26, 2018 at 04:00 UTC

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch – Are Bears Back in the Game?

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch - Are Bears Back in the Game?

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch – Are Bears Back in the Game?

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

Bitcoin price broke below the latest swing low to confirm that selling pressure remains.
Price is testing one of the Fibonacci extension levels and could head to the next ones from here.
Technical indicators are giving mixed signals but the overall downtrend remains intact.

Bitcoin price is resuming the slide and bearish pressure could pick up now that it broke below the $6,050 swing low.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is safely below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This signals that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. The short-term moving average also lines up with the top of the channel to add to its strength as a ceiling.

Price has broken below the swing low and 50% Fib extension around $6,050 to indicate that bearish momentum is picking up. This might be enough to take bitcoin down to the support at $5,500 or the full extension at $5,238.

However, RSI is heading north so bitcoin price could follow suit. Similarly stochastic is moving up to indicate that buyers are trying to regain control while sellers take a break. Once both oscillators hit overbought levels, though, bears could return and push for new lows.

Market Factors

Bitcoin price suffered another tumble on news of yet another hack, this time in China involving cryptocurrency called Siacoin. As it turned out, malware affecting computers in some internet cafes allowed hackers to mine Siacoin worth approximately $800,000.

Although this amount is relatively small and does not directly affect bitcoin price, the impact on industry confidence has been significant. In previous weeks, there have been hacks on South

Korean exchange Coinrail and on larger company Bithumb, so it’s no surprise that investors are on edge when it comes to security issues.

SARAH JENN | JUNE 25, 2018 | 4:07 AM

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Rebound Above $10,000 by 2019

Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com predicted Bitcoin (BTC) to drop to $4,000 prior to a rebound above $10,000 by 2019 on CNBC’s Stock Draft June 22.

Gordon suggested that BTC will drop below $5,000, subsequently hitting $10,000 by the end of the year, citing significant market volatility to be the main reason. When asked to explain his estimates, Gordon cited a “beautiful uptrend,” and called the recent correction down from $19,000 “inconsequential” given the gains in BTC price since 2015.

The analyst said that the current high to low range is 17 percent on average, which is one of the lowest BTC has ever seen. “There were times when it was 20, 30, 40 percent [per] week so, if I’m down 30 percent right now in Bitcoin, that’s nothing, I can make that up in two weeks,” he continued.

Gorgon argued that the cryptocurrency market is “very technically driven,” so reckoning on the technicals and market sentiment, it’s possible to recover certain losses in the near future.

Gordon’s site, TradingAnalysis.com, provides market analysis and trading strategies. Gordon has also made predictions about other markets, including commodities like crude oil. In November 2015, when crude was trading at $41, he predicted a decline of nearly 50 percent down to $26. In February of the following year, crude was trading at $26.05.

Earlier in June, stock analytics firm Trefis estimated a BTC year-end price of $12,500, which is $2,500 lower than their initial forecast. Trefis’ BTC forecast analytics is based on fundamentals of supply and demand, where demand is the number of users and the amount of transactions, and supply is the number of available BTC.

Last month, Wall Street analyst Spencer Bogart said that the major cryptocurrency will trade “at least” above $10,000 by the year’s end. He suggested that the reality of a deeper institutionalization of the crypto space is securing the long term “story,” and is “overall positive” for Bitcoin’s future.

Author Ana Alexandre

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

World’s Biggest VC Firms are Creating Cryptocurrency Funds, Market Enthusiastic

Historically venture capitalists do not own cryptocurrencies. They hold equity and invest in privately and publicly held companies but, with the potential of cryptocurrency and blockchain based technology companies to create unprecedented returns VC firms are exploring ways to restructure legally and financially to tap into that future revenue stream.

VC Firms Creating New Strategies for Crypto

Recode recently examined four different strategies some of the top venture capital firms have taken to re-orientate the way they do business.

Andreesen Horowitz, cofounded by Marc Andreesen creator of the first web browser (Netscape Navigator) and longtime Bitcoin enthusiast, for instance, has created a separate pool of money raised specifically for investment in cryptocurrency projects. This allows Horowitz to put together a group of investors whose main interest is in the nascent technology. It also allows the firm to sidestep laws that limit VC firms from having more than 20% of their investments in assets considered liquid securities such as cryptocurrencies.

Finding a middle ground between launching a separate fund such as Horowitz has and maintaining the traditional status quo allows LightSpeed Venture Partners to earmark a percentage from a general fund specifically for investment in crypto projects. This sends a message to the crypto world that they are dedicated to the space and attracts investors whose main interest is in crypto projects, while soothing partners still skeptical about the volatile industry.

The famous New York Venture Capital firm Union Square Ventures leads a handful of smaller funds putting money into crypto-specific funds set up by other firms. With this strategy, the firm doesn’t have to create a separate unit for crypto but, still gains plenty of exposure to the space without the time and resource commitment of owning any startups. It also allows them to invest simultaneously in multiple funds.

Fred Wilson from USV has advised investors previously about having at least some position in crypto saying:

“If I were a trader, a stock trader or hedge fund person, I might think of having 5% of my assets in something like this; it’s still early days; I don’t think you want to go all in on it, but I think you want to be in it.”

For most the Status Quo

Most VC firms so far have only made slight legal and financial tweaks to their traditional business models. This allows them to dabble in cryptocurrencies, to hold some coins or invest in ICO’s, without making radical changes that could upset partners or expose them to the ongoing legal troubles that crypto startups must negotiate. This is a safe hedge against a catastrophic shift in the crypto space that still allows them enough exposure to shift gears when the industry settles into a more traditional pattern.

Author JOHN MCMAHON | JUNE 22, 2018 | 5:03 AM

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Why bitcoin made a comeback after the South Korean exchange hack

Bitcoin declined on Wednesday after a South Korean exchange hack was reported.
But by the same evening, the digital coin had bounced back.

Two cryptocurrency traders explain why.

Bitcoin made a comeback despite crashing after a recent hack on a South Korean exchange, and two cryptocurrency traders explained why it rebounded.

Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin, a global decentralized currency that is based on blockchain technology, said it was to be expected.

"Whenever there's an exchange hack, people get scared and the price drops," Lee said on "Fast Money" Wednesday. "It happens all the time."

"Whenever there's some bad news like an exchange hack, the prices drop like 5 percent," he said. "Five percent is a lot in the stock market world, but it's like nothing in the crypto space."

Bitcoin, the largest digital coin by market cap, fell from $6,718.35 to $6,561.79 Wednesday after news that the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb was hacked and $30 million of coins were stolen.

By Wednesday evening at 5:30 p.m. ET, bitcoin had rebounded to more $6,700 in what Kelly called a "mini uptrend."

The two traders explain why.

1. Bithumb acted quickly

Kelly said as soon as the news was reported the exchange took action.

"They halted withdrawals and they put everything into cold storage," he said.

2. Exchange paid back investor losses

Bithumb used its own money to pay back investors.

"They immediately said, 'Any losses, we have reserves. We're going to pay for them. Nobody loses money," Kelly said.

3. Fundamentals

Lee said when an exchange is hacked, it doesn't affect the fundamentals of the underlying coins.

He likened it to a bank robbery. If a bank gets broken into and gold is stolen, Lee said, it doesn't affect the price of gold.

"So same with bitcoin," he said. "If an exchange doesn't protect their coins well enough and it gets hacked, it doesn't really change the fundamentals of the coin that they're protecting."

Additionally, a report released on Wednesday, by a Washington law firm, stated that the cryptocurrency firm Tether has enough U.S. dollar reserves to back its digital coins. The report came on the heels of investor concerns that the firm may not have actually had the reserves to back up its coins.

"The past few years people have been scared that Tether has been printing their Tether coins out of thin air and buying bitcoin with it, which might be the cause of last year's run up," Lee said. "And if they actually do have the USD backing that means that the run-up is created by real demand and not fake demand. That's really good news."

Investors have to protect their cryptocurrency better

Brian Kelly, founder and CEO of BKCM LLC, an investment firm focused on digital currencies, advised investors to hold their cryptocurrency in cold storage — which involves storing it offline — if possible.

Exchanges are "kinda the weak point here," Kelly said on "Fast Money" Wednesday.

Lee added that the cryptocurrency industry is relatively new, and exchanges are still learning to protect their funds.

"People have to get used to that, they really need to protect their coins much better than traditional finance," he said.

– Reuters contributed to this report.

Author: Kellie Ell

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch – Make or Break at Channel Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch - Make or Break at Channel Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Watch – Make or Break at Channel Resistance

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

Bitcoin price looks ready to resume the slide after hitting the resistance at the descending channel.
This lines up with the Fib retracement levels, adding strength to the ceiling.
Technical indicators also support a continuation of the downtrend.

Bitcoin price climbed to the top of its descending channel where sellers were waiting to push it back down.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This suggests that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse.

The shorter-term moving average is also close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to signal that selling pressure is returning. This might be enough to push bitcoin price back to the channel support around $6,000 or lower.

RSI is also turning lower from the overbought zone to signal a return bearish momentum. Similarly stochastic is turning lower without even hitting overbought levels, indicating that bears are eager to return.

If bulls keep charging, there are still a couple of upside roadblocks to contend with. This is the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point at $7,600 and the swing high around $7,800. From there, a move past the $8,000 handle could signal that the uptrend is gaining traction.

Bitcoin price got another blow from remarks by Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein who said that this cryptocurrency is not for him. However, there is still some degree of positive sentiment coming from the New York FSA’s approval of Square’s Cash mobile app license and remarks from a senior SEC official last week citing that bitcoin shouldn’t be treated as a security.

However, dollar strength is proving tough to oppose as risk aversion on a fresh round of tariffs threats is keeping the safe-haven currency supported even against bitcoin.

SARAH JENN | JUNE 20, 2018 | 4:38 AM

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden