Crypto Market Prints Bullish Divergence – Case for Bounce Growing

Since plunging all the way to $7,700 last week, Bitcoin has found itself in a lull. The price of the crypto asset, as seen below, has been extremely mild over the past few days.

The one-day Bitcoin volatility index on BitMEX, in fact, is starting to “get closer to [the move which precedes] big candle BTC moves,” analyst Chonis observed recently.

With this latest bout of consolidation, many have been asking in which direction the cryptocurrency market will head next.

According to some, the case for a bounce to the upside is growing. And it might not just be Bitcoin that will bounce.

Case for Crypto Price Bounce Building

If you have perused Crypto Twitter at all over the past few days, you probably have noticed the incessant stream of bearish tweets being published. This writer, personally, has seen at least a half-dozen tweets suggesting that some expect for Bitcoin to enter yet another bear market.

Related Reading: More Downside in Bitcoin Before Conservative Buying Opportunity, Say Analysts

But, a key technical signal is suggesting some impending market strength. Analyst CryptoThies recently drew attention to this signal: a bullish divergence on the crypto market capitalization’s three-day chart.

As he depicted in the tweet that can be seen below, the three-day Stochastic has started to trend higher, seeing higher lows, as the market cap has entered a brief downtrend, seeing lower lows — a bullish divergence that demonstrates that bears are losing control to bulls. Bullish divergences can often mark the end of a downtrend.

Not All Sunshine and Rainbows

Although there is a fair amount of evidence to suggest that a bounce in the cryptocurrency markets will take place, there is one indicator seemingly poised to print a bearish signal: crossovers in the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, Brave New Coin’s Josh Olszewicz recently observed that the two moving averages, which can be interpreted in tandem to discover macro market trends, have converged since Bitcoin’s upward momentum stopped earlier this year.

If the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day, the crypto market’s total capitalization will print what is known as a “death cross”, a sign that last was seen in April of 2018 — just shy of the market’s top in the last cryptocurrency cycle.

Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: SEC Declares Bitcoin a Non-Security, Ethereum DeFi Gains Traction, PayPal Leaves Libra

What the moving averages are saying is that if a strong bounce is not observed soon, the crypto market may be subject to another few months, maybe even a year or more, of decisively bearish price action.
 

Nick Chong

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Chart Analysis – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Credits for October

The Current Market Situation

As of October 4th, crypto markets are still struggling to recover. Since its last sharp drop, BTC fails to retrace to $8500 level while many other currencies see significant losses. As of publishing time, BTC dominance remains around 67%.

BTC/USDT Daily Chart

On the chart, we can see that the price made a break of the lower resistance boundary of the “triangle with a flat bottom” formation in the zone of $9560-9580. At the same time, 157 SMA was broken, which confirmed the dominance of sellers. Now the price is trading around $8100-8250, at the border of the resistance of descending channel. Consolidation of the price indicates the current period of accumulation, interest of buyers and a potential return to the upper boundary of the descending channel to $9100-9200 zone. After the middle of the month, the price may rebound from the support level of the descending channel and return to the area of $??8900-9300, where there is a strong resistance. Also, the other day, the level of 8200 was traded and once again protected. The common mood is to fall, and we know that often the market goes against the majority. A lot of people are in shorts and this is an excellent point for growth (their stops and liquidation of positions, as was the case recently with longsters)

credits, cryptocurrency, market, analysis

CS/BTC 4H Chart

Against the background of a general market decline, the CS/BTC trading pair shows a positive trend in terms of growth in volumes and prices. On the chart, we can see that the price once again has rebounded from the support line in the zone of 0.0000105-0.0000110 BTC and is preparing for a retest of the resistance zone around 0.0000127-0.0000130 BTC. Breaking this zone will enable the price to go up to the zone of 0.000015-0.000016 BTC. The overselling of technical indicators, as well as fundamental news performance, can be an additional incentive for investors when deciding to enter a position.

ETH/BTC Daily Chart

On this chart, we see that the ETH/BTC pair is in a deep downtrend that has been going on for a year. However, the price has been able to demonstrate positive dynamics, pushing away from support in the zone of ??0.0155-0.0160 BTC, which is a historical low. Currently, the price is being traded to the midline of the descending channel, next to the 157 moving average. The downtrend to BTC indicates the possibility of diversification of investor assets and the potential growth of the ETH/BTC pair. An important resistance level is the zone 0.025-0.026 BTC, a break of which can signal a return to the zone 0.0308-0.0309 and the beginning of a new uptrend.

Fear & Greed Index

Currently, the Crypto Market Sentiment displays a “Fear-30” meter that correlates quite correctly with the general market situation and recent price movements. The investors are worried which means it is a signal for buying at an undervalue.

Martin Goldmann

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Bitcoin price prediction – BTC/USD barely holding at the edge of a cliff – Confluence Detector

Bitcoin futures contracts are likely to be banned from Britain’s retail market.

Bitcoin stares into the abyss after testing the $8,000 weak support area.

Bitcoin continues to lead the market in consolidation. However, a keen observation of the Bitcoin trend, one can clearly tell that the price has a high affinity to declines in the near-term. Its potential to hold above the critical $8,000 is almost non-existent. This follows a correction from an opening price of $8,231 and a bearish leg to $8,063.

In other news, Bitcoin futures contracts are likely to be kicked off the retail market in Britain if the consideration being made by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) sees the light of the day. Although matter came to light during a consultation on October 3, a ruling on it will have to wait until 2020.

Consequently, as mentioned above Bitcoin is hanging on a thread above $8,000. The confluence detector places the first support at $8,044 (weak support). Glancing lower, the only next viable support area is $7,792 as highlighted using the previous week low, pivot point one daily support three.

On the upside, huge resistance awaits the bulls at $8,297. The indicators converging in this zone are the simple moving average five one-day, SMA 10 one-day, Bollinger Band four-hour middle, Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day.

On the brighter side, if the price manages to clear the resistance at $8,297 the remaining journey to $9,000 will be less bumpy except for a few hurdles at $8,549 and $8,969.

John Isige

FXStreet

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Experts See Bitcoin Rallying to $20,000 Before End of the Year – Here are the Reasons

Bitcoin is down by over 40% from the 2019 high of $13,880. Any other asset plunging by 20% or more would have been in a bear market. But not the king of cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has retraced by more than 40% in previous bull runs and many market participants are comfortable holding the cryptocurrency.

To prove our point, we asked experts what are their year-end target for the top cryptocurrency. We were surprised to see that many of them are bullish on bitcoin and believe that it will regain the all-time high of $20,000 before this year expires.

$10,000 Appears to Be the Conservative Target

Experienced traders are not fond of doling out extreme target prices. They believe that it encourages some retail traders to think of how much money they can make instead of protecting their capital. This strategy often leads to tremendous losses.

Hence, some traders gave us conservative price targets. For instance, Elliotician Benjamin Blunts sees bitcoin recovering $10,000. He said,

I think we can be back at $10,000 by year end provided we get a strong bounce from the $7,500 support zone on [the] daily.

Crypto trader Beastlorion supports the call of Benjamin Blunts. The analyst told CCN,

Well, between $10,000 – $12,000.

Michael Terpin, founder and chief executive of Transform Group, also chimed in. He said,

The price of bitcoin historically advances sharply two quarters before the halving and has also averaged triple-digit gains in the fourth quarter if you remove the corrective years following all-time highs. This Q4 should most closely resemble Q4 2015, which saw an 85 pct gain in the quarter, which would put the price of BTC at $15,400.

In addition, the widely-followed Trader Mayne is sticking to his call. When asked about his year-end target, the trader said,

$16,000.

It seems that technical analysts have a wide range in terms of their target price for bitcoin this year. On the contrary, those who look at the fundamentals seem confident that bitcoin will reach $20,000.

$20,000 Attainable Due to Bitcoin’s Growing Fundamentals

While poring over charts might give analysts a target between $10,000 and $16,000, those who focus on bitcoin’s strengthening fundamentals are looking at $20,000 or higher.

For instance, Sean Barger, managing director of CPUcoin, said,

I believe BTC will pierce $20,000 by the end of the year. There’s simply too much being built on BTC as the foundation for the universal world currency, and there are signs of deep adoption from enterprise and consumers alike.

Tomàs Sallés a financial writer at FXStreet supports Mr. Barger’s call. He said,

If [bitcoin] resists above $7,750 we could see [it] closing in the $17,000 zone or above historical highs and $20,000 price level.

Nick Hellman, the president of LearnCrypto, was ready to up the ante but he extended the timeline. He told CCN,

Let’s just say new highs before May of 2020, probably somewhere from $24,000 – $32,000.

For those who are not aware, May 2020 is when the next bitcoin halving takes place. This is an ultra bullish event that even a German bank sees the cryptocurrency trading at $90,000 after the halving.

Thus, if a financial institution sees bitcoin valued at $90,000 after the May halving, it may not be so far-fetched to think that the cryptocurrency could be priced at $20,000 before the turn of the calendar.

Disclaimer: The above should not be considered trading advice from CCN. The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

By

Kiril Nikolaev @kirilnikk123

October 2, 2019

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden

Precipitous 20% Bitcoin Price Plunge to $8,000 Caused by Traders Data

Bitcoin hasn’t had the past ten days. Since the Sunday before last, the price of the cryptocurrency has shed some 15%, leaving many traders stumped as to what in the world took place to send digital assets plummeting.

Cynics of the Bitcoin market have suggested that the rally to $14,000 and the subsequent dump was “one final pump and dump” enacted by whales. Gold proponent Peter Schiff, for instance, claimed that this move is a precursor to a plunge to $4,000, potentially lower.

But, data has shown that it isn’t these whales causing Bitcoin’s recent volatility, it’s the short-term traders presumably looking to make a quick buck.

Bitcoin Drop Led by Traders

Coinmetrics recently published to Twitter a chart that tracked the “change in the number of Bitcoin by price at time of last on-chain movement” for September 20th to 29th.

As seen below, the industry analytics startup found that during the recent price decline, “there was activity from Bitcoin that last moved when prices were between $13,000 and $20,000”, implying that capitulation for those in the red “is complete”.

There were other optimistic signs. Two, in fact.

Firstly, quite heavy selling from Bitcoin last moved in the $10,000 to $12,000 range hints that the sell-off was a byproduct of “short-term traders that have weak long-term conviction”.

And secondly, as there was little profit-taking from long-term holders that accumulated under $8,000, meaning that this subset’s “bull market psychology remains unchanged.”

Cryptocurrency analytics firm Glassnode has corroborated this analysis. They found that the average age of moved coins over recent days “is between 20-30 days”, while the CoinDays Destroyed metric “hasn’t deviated significantly”.

This data can be interpreted as a sign that the “[price drop] was likely due to short-term holders,” which is partially proven by the massive volumes seen on BitMEX and other high time preference exchanges during this move lower.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below Stock-to-Flow Model, Will The Halving Be Front Run By Bulls?

The Accumulation Game

Short-term traders may have run for the hills, but HODLers, on the other hand, have been sticking to their guns.

According to an analysis completed by Twitter account “BitcoinEconomics.io”, accumulation by addresses it deems “companies”, “retail holders”, and “big holders” has been on a steady uptrend, even throughout the recent bout of volatility. They claim that this is a sign that the “outlook for Bitcoin looks great”.

What all these investors seem to be waiting for is Bitcoin’s next block reward reduction — known as a “halving” or “halvening”. You see, in May 2020, the issuance (inflation) of BTC will be cut in half as a result of baked-in facets of the Bitcoin protocol. Analysts say that this halving event, which equates to a negative supply shock, will boost BTC to fresh heights.

Due to this potential for upside, or at least the hype surrounding this narrative, investors are believed to be stacking satoshis (as they fondly call the game of Bitcoin accumulation) in anticipation of price upside.

Whether or not that upside comes to fruition, however, remains to be seen. But many sure seem to be betting on it.

Nick Chong

David Ogden – Http://markethive.com/david-ogden