Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 09/19/2017 – Can Bulls Keep It Up

Bitcoin price seems to have completed a large correction and is ready to resume its long-term uptrend.

 

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

• Bitcoin price has bounced off a long-term area of interest after its recent sharp drop, signaling that the uptrend could still resume.
• Applying the Fib extension tool on this major correction could indicate how high bulls could take bitcoin from here.
• Technical indicators on the daily time frame also suggest that the long-term climb could carry on.

Bitcoin price seems to have completed a large correction and is ready to resume its long-term uptrend.

 

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on the daily chart, signaling that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The gap is also gradually widening to reflect strengthening bullish momentum. Also, the 100 SMA has recently held as dynamic support as it lined up with the rising trend line connecting the lows since April.

Stochastic has pulled up from the oversold region to show that buyers are regaining control of bitcoin price action. RSI is also turning higher and appears to be heading north so bitcoin could follow suit.

The next potential resistance is at the 38.2% extension just past the $4000 major psychological barrier. The 50% extension is at $4637, the 61.8% extension at the $5000 handle close to the record highs, and the 76.4% extension at $5464. The full extension is around the $6200 level.

Market Factors

Chinese regulators have confirmed that they are stepping up their efforts to crack down on the cryptocurrency, following rumors that authorities are already shutting down exchanges in the country. However, investors seem to have moved on from this news as other markets like Japan and South Korea are taking majority of the market share and activity.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is giving up some ground to bitcoin price ahead of the FOMC decision, during which the central bank would likely keep rates on hold and downgrade growth forecasts on account of the recent hurricanes. A press conference will also follow and Yellen’s responses will be scrutinized as traders hunt for clues on December tightening.

Author Sarah Jenn on 4:23 am September 19, 2017

Time to ride the tiger

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Bitcoin Price Sinks Below $4,200 on China Uncertainty

Markets for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have fallen over the course of the day, following contested reports that regulators in China are looking to shut down the country's exchange ecosystem.

CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) is currently at about $4,184, representing a nearly 10 percent decline since the start of the day's trading. Markets peaked today at $4,698.73, per the BPI, though prices began to tumble around 13:20 UTC.

Additional data from CoinMarketCap reveals that – perhaps unsurprisingly – China's top bitcoin exchanges are reporting some of the steepest price declines. The BTC/CNY market on OKCoin is at $3,650.71, while Huobi and BTCC are reporting prices of $3,657.84 and $3,656.57, respectively, at press time.

Other major bitcoin exchanges, including Bitfinex and Bistamp, are reporting current prices above the $4,100 level, according to data from BitcoinWisdom.

As reported earlier today, Chinese news source Caixin, citing unnamed sources, said that regulators are looking to shut down the exchanges. That decision, the newspaper claimed, has already been made and disseminated to other sources. Yet in the wake of that story, exchanges in China said they haven't receive any notices from the Chinese government, casting doubt on the veracity of the Caixin report.

Amidst the uncertainty, other cryptocurrency markets have seen notable declines as well. Ether prices are down more than 10 percent today, trading at around $295.93. Broad market declines have pushed the collective cryptocurrency market capitalization below $150 billion, after spending several days above the $160 billion level.

 

Sep 8, 2017 at 22:58 UTC by Stan Higgins

 

Posted By David Ogden Entrepreneur

 

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Bitcoin Breakout – Price Action Analysis Hints at Possible Pullback

The bitcoin price [BTC to US dollar exchange rate] fell to a two-week low of $3,900 on Tuesday, a market movement that represented the biggest decline for the asset since July.

Triggered by the sudden news from China that the country’s financial regulators would ban initial coin offerings, the decline has also called into question just how big the appetite is for a higher bitcoin price given its 700% year-over-year gains.

However, traders appear to be bullish on the idea it can rise back above $5,000, the all-time high it set last Friday. In fact, traders who missed the rally appear to be utilizing the dip to board the bitcoin freight train – over the last 48 hours, the digital currency has recovered more than 50% of the losses it suffered during the four day period from September 2–5.

At press time, the BTC traded at $4,620, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index. Week-on-week, bitcoin is down 2.69%. On a monthly basis, the cryptocurrency is up 34.8%.

Still, while the sharp rally from the weekly low of $3,900 has triggered speculation bitcoin is aiming for the fresh record highs, technical studies say the recovery lacks substance.

Money Flow Index [MFI] does not support further gains

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator that uses both price and volume to measure buying and selling pressure. (MFI indicates rising or falling prices always through its own rise or fall.) If the MFI rises above the centre line [50], this is regarded as a buy signal.

Similarly, an intersection going down is regarded as a sell signal.

Daily chart

The MFI index is pointing downwards and shows no signs of life despite the sharp recovery from the weekly low of $3,900.

The weakness in the MFI could be an indication that the technical recovery lacks substance, i.e. lacks buying pressure and could have been fuelled by unwinding [profit taking] on the shorts.

4-Hour chart

The MFI is close to overbought levels. Typically, an MFI above 80 is considered overbought and MFI below 20 is considered oversold. These levels are often used to identify unsustainable price extremes.

Overbought levels alone are not enough to turn bearish. However, in BTC’s case, the overbought MFI on the 4-hour chart could be read as a signal that the recovery from the low of $3,900 has ended. This is because, the daily MFI is bearish as discussed above.

Furthermore, the decline from the record high of $5,000 was triggered by a bearish price-RSI divergence. A bearish price RSI divergence is formed when prices form higher highs while the oscillator – in this case an RSI – forms significantly lower highs.)

As such, bitcoin’s outlook remains bearish unless we break above $5,000 as such a move would signal the bearish price RSI divergence is no longer valid.

View

Daily chart

Bullish factors

• The rising trend line is intact and is likely to offer support at $4,265

Bearish factors

• As discussed above, the MFI is not in favor of further gains in bitcoin
• Bearish price-RSI divergence
• Potential head and shoulders pattern

BTC is more likely to break below $4,265, in which case a lower highs pattern would be confirmed. An uptrend, which is a series of higher highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing into a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Lower lows would be confirmed if prices break below the recent low of $4,900.

Also note that a lower highs would increase the odds of the prices forming a head and shoulders [H&S] bearish reversal pattern. The Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security [in this case bitcoin] is likely to move against the previous trend.

The H&S neckline [line drawn from the left shoulder bottom and right shoulder bottom] support is seen at $3980 levels. A break below the neckline level confirms bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.

Bullish scenario

A break above $4,640 could result in a rally towards $5000, although caution is advised as only a move above $5,000 would make the bearish price-RSI divergence invalid and shall revive the rally set in motion from the July low of $1,826.

Disclaimer: This article should not be taken as, and is not intended to provide, investment advice. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency.

Sep 7, 2017 at 14:20 UTC by Omkar Godbole

 

Posted By David Ogden Entrepreneur

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What you need to know about the latest Bitcoin boom

 

You may have noticed reports about Bitcoin’s value recently – its price is headed into the stratosphere.

The crypto-currency’s recent meteoric price rise over the summer has seen one Bitcoin go from being worth $1,500 in early May to more than $5,000 over the weekend, before dropping to $4,654 at the time of publication.

And that has got all kinds of people interested – people like Andrew Beckwith, a DJ who goes by the name Supersede. “I play restaurants, lounges, nightclubs, corporate events,” he says.

But he also invests. Beckwith has just taken his first step into the world of crypto-currencies, having converted $100 into Bitcoin.

“I don’t know how far it’s going to grow,” he explains, “but if something is growing at hundreds of per cent, that’s a pretty valuable return.”

Bitcoin is notorious for its volatility, but the recent peaks are unprecedented. In late 2013 its value jumped from around $100 to $1,000 – a bigger percentage increase – but it is worth more than four times that today.

“Recently there’s been a lot more talk in the media and others have been investing,” explains Kiran Varughese, another amateur investor, who works for an elevator company in Dubai.

The notoriously volatile crypto-currency has been making headlines with its skyrocketing value, but some believe it’s a bubble driven by speculation (Credit: Getty Images)

A friend’s experiments with Bitcoin piqued his curiosity so he clubbed together with another pal to invest $1,000 in August. If they lose it, he says they won’t be too worried – the potential for a big return within the next few years is too tantalising for Varughese to resist.

But are investors like Varughese and Beckwith taking too much of a risk by buying into Bitcoin, and other crypto-currencies like Ethereum, Litecoin or Dash? Is there something about these digital currencies that underpins their soaring prices or are they simply subject to whims in the market that can make fortunes but also devastate them?

While the market capitalisation of all crypto-currencies now stands at $150 billion, they still occupy a strange space in the world of finance.

“Every year Bitcoin continues to exist is something to take note of,” says Garrick Hileman, a research fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance at the University of Cambridge. “It’s a significant achievement for Bitcoin to have survived the many setbacks and challenges that it has faced.”

One of these challenges occurred recently when Bitcoin split in two. It happened after the Bitcoin community became divided over how to allow more transactions to be processed with the currency. Because Bitcoin has no over-arching authority that controls it, any decision to alter the system that underpins it needed to gather enough support from Bitcoin users to go ahead. The system itself is called the blockchain – a huge digital ledger that records every single Bitcoin transaction in history.

Mining Bitcoin takes time and computer processing power, so it’s often done in massive farms such as this converted warehouse in Moscow, Russia (Credit: Getty Images)

As computers on the Bitcoin network verify transactions, “blocks” of data are added to the ledger, storing this information. Computers that do this work receive a small sum of bitcoins as a reward – this is the process known as mining. Every single computer on the network has a copy of the blockchain and their copy of it is constantly updated.

But until recently, Bitcoin blocks were limited in size to a megabyte every 10 minutes, meaning that the rate at which the blockchain could grow was capped. In early August, a new version of the crypto-currency – Bitcoin Cash – was mined for the first time. Its blocks can be up to eight megabytes in size.

Some believe the smooth transition through this “fork” without any technical disasters has contributed to renewed confidence in Bitcoin, in turn helping to pump the price up. One “coin” of Bitcoin Cash is worth less, around $630 today, but that’s up $200 since its inception a month ago.

Another fork to upgrade the block size further is expected in November and if successful, it might have a similar impact on Bitcoin’s buoyant price.

But “currencies” like Bitcoin aren’t really playing the role of a traditional currency at the moment, says Vili Lehdonvirta, an economic sociologist at the Oxford Internet Institute, which is part of the University of Oxford.

“When I called up a restaurant in Helsinki earlier this year to ask if they accept Bitcoin, the response was that they tried it a few years ago, nobody ever used it, and thus they no longer accept it,” he explains.

Most retailers don’t accept the crypto-currency (Credit: Getty Images)

BBC Capital contacted 10 businesses in London that have advertised an ability to accept Bitcoin in the past. Four of them said they had stopped accepting and two that did accept them reported hardly ever processing such payments.

Instead, it appears many people are simply speculating on Bitcoin – investing in what is a relatively high-risk asset in the hope of a short-term gain in profit. But lucrative outcomes are by no means guaranteed – and many still think that Bitcoin is just a bubble.

In the short-term there may be various reasons why people are buying in while the price is buoyant. Some may like investing in a currency unconnected to nation states, suggests Hileman. It could be seen as good insulation against uncertain political developments that can cause traditional currencies to plummet dramatically – as happened to the British pound in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Volatile international disputes, such as those involving North Korea, could be driving people to put their money elsewhere.

The pound dropped sharply after Brexit – since Bitcoin is not tied to any one nation-state, it’s less affected by large political events (Credit: Getty Images)

“If you’re in South Korea and you’re concerned about a geopolitical event, do you trade in the US dollar?” asks Hileman. “Maybe that’s not a great idea because the US will be involved, as will China and Japan, so it’s not surprising to see people look for alternative currencies,” he says.

Applied cryptography consultant and Bitcoin-watcher Peter Todd says some are also attracted by Bitcoin’s independence for broader political reasons, too.

In an uncertain world, people’s financial freedom is sometimes limited by their governments. Take India, which recently tried to curb public investments in gold as this was harming the nation’s economy. Bitcoin is a global entity, no one government can fiddle with it – although there are countries where trading it is illegal.

Still, crypto-currencies remain associated with plenty of risks that go beyond their volatility. Many people store their bitcoins in online exchanges and should these be hacked or go bust, which has happened more than once, then the money is often lost forever.

With all the technical ups and downs of crypto-currencies – their changes and potential to split into new currencies for example – there is also a significant degree of complexity that can leave less informed investors bewildered.

MtGox, a Bitcoin exchange based in Tokyo, collapsed after losing nearly $500m in Bitcoin to what it says was a hack attack (Credit: Getty Images)

A new area of excitement, known as initial coin offerings (ICOs), are also beginning to worry some experts. ICOs allow owners of crypto-currencies to invest in fledgling companies, with many using Ethereum as their digital coin of choice. However, ICOs have already been associated with a number of scams and hacks, and China just banned them, calling ICOs 'illegal fundraising'.

“I think the main thing we’re seeing in ICOs is straight-up fraud,” says Todd. He is concerned about efforts by regulators to clamp down on this because such an approach could backfire and encourage scammers to become more sophisticated.

“It’s when things look legit that they get dangerous,” he says, pointing out that a few years ago Bitcoin and other digital tokens had more of a “Wild West” feel to them, which perhaps meant people were less likely to be duped since scams were crude and easy to spot. As more and more investors get involved in crypto-currencies, scams can get slicker and the natural wariness that can keep people cautious may also diminish.

Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are gradually cementing their stated position – providing a radical new alternative to the investment options that existed before them. But there is no certainty as to how this massive experiment will play out. Though when did that ever stop hopeful investors taking a punt?

 

By Chris Baraniuk
7 September 2017

This story was produced under the BBC's guidelines for financial journalism. A full version of those guidelines can be found at bbc.co.uk/guidelines.

 

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